Dec Chgo Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.98 ½), March 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.06 ½) & July 8 ½ cents lower ($5.22 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 8 ½ cents lower ($4.74 ¼), March 7 ¾ cents lower ($4.98 ¾) & July 7 ¾ cents lower ($5.21 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 509.1 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected – 9.810 M T. to date vs. 12.017 M T. year ago
Weekly Winter Wheat Crop Progress & Condition – Planted – 93% vs. 93% expected vs. 97% 5-year average – Emerged – 81% vs. 88% 5-year average – 56% GE vs. 54% expected vs. 53% year ago
The rumor mill has Pakistan trying to set up additional funds for additional wheat export (subsidized). That’s just what the US needs; more export competition. Whether this happens or not the continued lower prices in the KC market suggest it is looking for business and not finding any. Weekly export inspections were deemed okay as far as what the trade was looking for but not enough to be market making. The lower US Dollar was barely given a mention. Dec KC registers new contract lows and new contract low closes. March KC nearly matches its contract low but does not register a new contract low close.
Interior cash SRW markets run unchanged as does its respective export market. Dec Chgo continues to gain on March due to the reduction in deliverable receipts. March forward Chgo spreads showed a steady to bearish bias. Cash markets for HRW continue to show a slightly friendlier tone. The export market for HRW runs fully steady. Dec KC loses to the March and its forward contracts while the March forward spreads run fully steady. If the nearby KC spreads are going to go the route of the nearby Chgo spreads we’re going to have to see additional KC deliverable receipts cancelled. At last count I saw 222; down 10 from last week.
Dec Chgo wheat registers its lowest close dating back to late October. March Chgo registers its lowest close dating back to January 2018. New contract lows with new contract low closes in Dec KC need no explanation. Another down day like today don’t be surprised to see Egypt back in the market.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/20
Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.00 ($4.93) – $5.12
Mch KC Wheat: $4.94 (?) – $5.09
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