March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($5.12 ½), May 2 cents higher ($5.18) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($5.23)
March KC Wheat closed unchanged ($4.95 ½), May ¼ cent lower ($5.06 ½) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.17)
Flat price wheat tries to bounce higher on Wednesday due to ideas that Tuesday’s break may have been a bit overdone. The rally didn’t go anywhere as during mid-session the Russian Ag ministry was reported as saying they are not discussing limiting grain exports abroad. This basically squelched the attempt at sustaining the early rally. Recent strength in the US dollar continues to be an inhibiting fact in the wheat market’s attempt to rally.
Not much happens in the wonderful world of cash wheat. The recent price declines have stymied any New Year cash selling. SRW at the Gulf is fully steady while HRW has a soft tone to it. Spreads weaken in Chgo due to the inability to sustain the early attempt at rallying. KC spreads lose fractionally. KC losing to Chgo on the inter-market spread does not instill much faith in the idea that this market is ready to rally out of its recent interim hole.
The inability to sustain the early attempt at rallying suggests the recent downside probing may not be over. Anyone trying to play the idea of fading short term extremes we saw that alleviated with the early rally. I’m still trying to maintain the idea that major risk is to the upside and not the downside but I won’t get stubborn. It would be nice to see a close above Tuesday’s high while a close below Tuesday’s low says trying to be friendly is wrong.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/17
Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.08 (?) – $5.18
Mch KC Wheat: $4.91 – $5.02
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