July Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($15.87 ½), August 2 cents lower ($15.25 ½) & Nov 3 ¾ cents lower ($13.97)
July Soybean Meal closed $3.6 lower ($414.9), August $3.2 lower ($410.8) & Dec $0.9 lower ($399.9)
July Soybean Oil closed 139 pts higher ($68.97), August 70 pts higher ($64.80) & Dec 13 pts higher ($59.68)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 308.8 K T. vs. 100.250 K T. expected
NOPA April 2021 Crush – 160.3 M bu. vs. 168.4 M bu. expected
Old crop soybean prices, once again, get help from strengthening soybean oil prices. The slowdown in the NOPA crush lends support to the bean oil market as stocks came in noticeably below expectations. One might have through the slowdown in the crush would have helped meal prices but in the NOPA crush data it was hard to ignore meal exports at 22 month lows. Bull spreading, old crop vs. new crop, continues to be a feature in both the soybean and soybean oil markets. The NOPA crush data for soybean meal weighed on those spreads. Weekly soybean export inspections came in above expectations which is a bit surprising given the problems on the Mississippi river last week.
The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it. Processors still show the best basis levels while the river basis appears to be softer. The gulf basis shows slightly softer bids while offers are hard to define. Despite the slowdown in the crush bull spreads within the old crop continue to show firm bias.
Old crop soybeans and new crop soybeans have moved into a consolidation phase following last week’s sharp sell-off. Both markets show technical room to move lower. The best looking support for the July soybeans is the $15.50 level and that’s contingent we take out the $15.75 level on a closing basis. For the near term November soybeans can easily trade inside last Thursday’s range, $14.43 to $13.65. $14.43 seems high while the low $13.65 seems to be well within reason. Trying to argue with the old crop soybean oil’s move into new highs seems like a lesson in frustration. July soybean meal should try to realize support from $410.0 down to $400.0.
The trade is expecting to see the soybean planted rate at 59%-60%. The USDA reports 61% of the soybean crop has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 37%. Emergence stands at 20% vs. the 5-year average of 12%.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/18
July Soybeans: $15.75 (?) – $16.05
July Soy Meal: $410.0 – $427.0
July Soy Oil: $66.85 – ???
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