March Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents higher ($13.74 ¾), July 2 cents higher ($13.54 ½) & Nov ¾ cents higher (11.49 ¼)
March Soybean Meal $0.1 higher ($436.6), July closed $0.8 lower ($429.0) & Dec $1.5 lower ($371.4)
March Soybean Oil closed 61 pts higher ($44.52), July closed 51 pts higher ($42.96) & Dec 40 pts higher ($39.94)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132.0 K T. to China (new crop), 126.5 K T. to Unknown (old crop)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 k – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 10-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
We saw a strong start today only see a wave of sharp profit taking that happened in a matter of minutes. Soybeans sold off by 30 cents, soybean meal $9.0 and soybean oil 100 pts. I did not see anything to prompt this wave of selling other than increased volatility. The news of the day was friendly. China buys some new crop soybeans and “unknown” buys some old crop soybeans. The harvest ready areas of Brazil continue to experience delays due to excessive moisture. Further south in Brazil the moisture is appreciated. Going forward it will be interesting how the planned truck strike in Brazil for next week comes off. The weather in the central growing areas of Argentina seems okay for now while the southern sections continue to see a dry bias.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis continues to run steady to weaker. The gulf soybean basis continues to ease as well. Despite the easier basis levels soybean spreads continue to tighten within the old crop as well as old crop gaining on the new crop. Not much happens the cash meal offers whether it’s for domestic or for export. Meal spreads showed a modest tightening bias. Soybean oil spreads continue to be off the charts with their strength.
For what it is worth today’s highs in soybeans and soybean meal honored suspected resistance levels that were set up from last week’s break. The suspected new leg higher in soybean oil appears to have started. Granted the fundamentals suggest rationing for the soybean complex the soybean and soybean meal charts are suggesting we may have a top in place for now. We broke hard last week, retraced the break and now we are balking at the recently established resistance that was created last week. Anyone that is bullish will not want to see closes below yesterday’s lows; $425.6 March meal and $13.33 ½ March soybeans. Let’s see if tomorrow’s export sales can keep the market alive.
Daily & Resistance – 01/28
March Beans : $13.55 – $13.88
March Meal: $425.0 – $442.0
March Bean Oil: $43.50 – $45.50
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