March Soybeans closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($9.02 ½), July 1 ¾ cents higher ($9.29 ¾) & Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.48 ½)
March Soybean Meal closed $0.2 lower ($305.2), July $0.3 lower ($313.1) & Dec $0.1 lower ($319.8)
March Soybean Oil closed 22 pts higher ($29.96), July 29 pts higher ($30.41) & Dec 19 pts higher ($31.22)
Average Trade Estimates for USDA Outlook Forum – Soybeans 2019/20 – 86.144 million planted acres – Yield 50.9 bpa – Production 4.320 billion bu. – Ending Stocks – 893 million bu.
Soybeans registered a two-sided trade on Wednesday. Bean oil lent support while soybean meal acted as a slight drag. The trade will be looking at what the USDA has to say as to acres and supply-demand over the next two days. Most agree we will see a noticeable cut in cares but it will still come down to how many vs. the size of the carryin. The ongoing trade talks with China revive some minor wishing and hoping for better business. Friday’s weekly export sales catch-up report will go far as to whether or not we will see further cuts in the current crop year’s export outlook.
Not a lot happens with the interior soybean basis. Toledo is up 5 cents and Savanna, Il is down 1 cent. The Gulf basis is steady with yesterday; down a couple of cents from Friday. Soybean spreads within the current crop ran mostly steady while old crop continues to ease vs. the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal run unchanged all the while staying relatively low. Meal spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day.
Wednesday was another day that March beans traded below trendline support as well as the 100 day MA only to close above those levels. I get the impression that the soybean market wants to stay around these current levels until we see what the USDA has to say at their Forum as well as Friday’s sales report. Soybean meal once again tests the low side of its months old trading range and manages to close near the high side of the day’s range. Soybean oil consolidates after 6 days of liquidation. In summary it appears the soybean complex has gone into a short term waiting game; waiting on what the USDA may say over the next couple of days.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/21
Mch Soybeans: $8.96 – $9.12
Mch Soybean Meal: $303.0 – 309.5
Mch Soybean Oil: $29.45 – $30.45
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