Wheat Commentary
July Chgo wheat closes 9 ½ cents lower ($4.23 ¼), Sept 8 ¾ cents lower ($4.38) and Dec 7 ½ cents lower ($4.58 ¾)
July KC Wheat closes 10 ¾ cents lower ($4.28 ½), Sept 10 ½ cents lower ($4.45 ½) and Dec 9 ¼ cents lower ($4.69 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 691.2 K T. vs. 375-625 K T. expected
Winter Wheat Conditions – 51% GE (-2%) vs. 52% expected vs. 62% year ago – Headed – 63% vs. 57% 5-year average
Spring Wheat Planted – 78% vs. 73% expected vs. 73% 5-year average – Emerged – 40% vs. 44% 5-year average
Existing spec shorts add to their already extensive short positions on Monday citing acceptable growing conditions in the US and globally as well. The lower US Dollar on Monday was totally ignored. Monday’s low in July Chgo wheat came within 5 cents or so of its contract low. The KC market acted just as ugly as Chgo but it is still 16 cents or so shy of its contract low. I have to admit I stand in awe at just how short the spec trade is in the feed grain sector (corn and wheat combined).
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. Not much is happening with the SRW market for export while the HRW market for export gives back some of last week’s strength. Needless to say wheat spreads softened with Monday’s spec selling.
My idea that flat price wheat made some important contract lows in late April is getting severely challenged. Nothing in Monday’s price action suggests that Monday’s lows are in support which is contrary to my earlier thinking.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/16
July Chgo Wheat: $4.18 – $4.32
July KC Wheat: $4.21 – $4.35
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.