Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.22 ¼), July 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.37 ½) and Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.73 ¼)
May KC Wheat closes 5 ¾ cents lower ($4.32 ½), July 5 ½ cents lower ($4.44 ¾) and Dec 4 ½ cents lower ($4.81 ¼)
USDA announces 120 K T. old crop HRW sold to Saudi Arabia
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected
Anticipation of a wet pattern developing for the dry areas of the central southern US Plains (for that matter the entire Midwest) continues to drive KC wheat prices lower which in turn influences Chgo prices lower. This is the #1 market factor as of this writing. Chgo specs are adding to their net short positions while KC specs continue to liquidate their net long positions. Chgo prices are now challenging what I thought was a long term bottoming formation that was established during the month of December. KC prices are acting similarly.
Interior cash wheat prices are quiet save for the hike Toledo did the other day. Export values remain quiet. I’m told that deliverable stocks have been drawing down. Chgo spreads were stable on the day to fractionally better. KC spreads remain soft looking and rather wide. I think the spec liquidating in KC is weighing on its nearby spreads.
How low can you go??? It’s all about the moisture in the forecasts encompassing the next two weeks. I will say noon forecasts did not look as wet as they did the previous day. I don’t want to sell current levels but the price action prohibits me from being a buyer. Do I still believe in the idea of a long term bottom – yes I do but confidence is getting a good challenge.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/23
July Chgo Wheat: $4.33 – $4.44
July KC Wheat: $4.40 – $4.50
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