Wheat Commentary
May Chgo wheat closes 5 ½ cents higher ($4.36), July 5 cents higher ($3.50 ¾) and Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.83)
May KC Wheat closes 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.47 ¼), July 4 ½ cents higher ($4.59) and Dec 4 cents higher ($4.93 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 25-200 K T. expected
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – overnight Egypt buys 420 K T. – 300 K T. Russian, 60 K T. Ukraine and 60 K T. French – the US submitted 3 different offers for this tender – the flat price looked competitive but when freight was added it was a no go.
Flat price wheat saw its best prices for the during the Tuesday night session. Prices, however, were able to maintain a decent portion of those gains as the day went on. My thought is the support came from the frosty temperatures that were seen in the Ohio Valley overnight. Short term forecasts still show the central southern Plains having a dry bias while longer term ideas still call for decent moisture for this area. Helping with the days strength was a weakening US dollar. As I have suggested in recent days the recent slide in prices has pretty much removed any weather premium that had been in the price structure. Wednesday’s rally has alleviated any concerns about the market being short term oversold.
Burns harbor improves its bid for SRW. The gulf is also showing slightly better values for SRW. Chgo spreads are now on a 2-day rally. The interior basis for HRW sees no changes while Gulf values for HRW appear to be a bit easier. KC spreads improve fractionally.
The price action in flat price is trying to suggest we have gone low enough for now. My problem is that we have yet to challenge any decent looking resistance. Until I see the flat price challenge resistance and how it handles that resistance I won’t be able to say an interim low has been established. As of this writing I would like to think an interim low has been established but I cannot offer any good technical rationale for that.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/16
July Chgo Wheat: $4.45 – $4.56
July KC Wheat: $4.54 – $4.66
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