Wheat Commentary
March Chgo Wheat closes 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.25 ¼), July 3 ½ cents higher ($4.51 ¼) and Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($4.84 ¾)
March KC Wheat closes 2 ½ cents higher ($4.29 ½), July 2 ¾ cents higher ($4.59 ¼) and Dec 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.96 ½)
Farm Futures appears to have adopted the most recent winter wheat acreage from the USDA – they are suggesting spring wheat acreage at 11.8 million vs. 11.0 last year.
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop 200-500 K T. expected – new crop none expected
Flat price wheat continues to grind higher prompted by a continued weak US Dollar and chatter of winterkill that won’t go away. I have to think most of the buying is short covering as I have not noted any suggestion of an increase in exports. For what it is worth IGC updated their ideas on global wheat production – they matched what the USDA had to say last Friday. They went on to suggest that the 2018/19 global production could fall to 742 M T. (-15.0 M T.)
Interior cash wheat prices remain quiet; export prices are quiet as well. Chgo spreads were quiet within the current crop year; old crop loses to the new crop. KC spreads ran in similar fashion.
Wheat prices flag back to the low side of recently established resistance. There has been chatter that winterkill potential could offset the higher than expected winter wheat acres. Are you prepared to trade this rational when possible winterkill effects for the next two months? I am not. I would like to see a test of the recently established support, $3.18-$3.16 Chgo March, before I can get in the camp wheat prices have made a low. Additionally – I don’t to see KC lose to Chgo on the current attempt to rally back. If the wheat market is good KC should be the leader.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/18
March Chgo Wheat: $4.18 – $4.28
March KC Wheat: $4.23 – $4.33
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.