Soybean Commentary
Sept Soybeans close 5 cents lower ($9.32 ½), Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($9.36 ¼) and March¾ cent lower ($9.53)
Sept Meal closes $1.4 lower ($295.8), Dec $1.5 lower ($299.0) and March $1.4 lower ($302.4)
Sept Bean oil closes 19 pts higher ($33.80), Dec 20 pts higher ($34.17) and March 23 pts higher ($34.57)
USDA announces 463 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Unknown, 198 K T. new crop soybeans sold to China
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 665.2 K T. vs. 450-600 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Rating & Progress – 60% GE (+1%) vs. 60% expected vs. 72% year ago – Blooming – 97% vs. 97% 5-year average – Podding – 87% vs. 85% 5-year average
Soybeans continue to hold on to their recent upside retracement attempts despite finishing lower on the day. Good rains in Iowa over the weekend and rain today in parts of northern Illinois were partially offset by stout looking export sales announcements. Indiana east is still looking for soybean making rains. Soybean meal continues to be the weak link within the soy complex. Soybean oil continues to be recipient of buying on the inter-market spreads. Strength in bean oil came despite lower overnight palm prices. The Farm Journal Midwest Crop Tour is finding variability with soybean yields at each end of their tour. They do not try to peg a per acre yield but rather they focus on pod counts.
With the exception of a couple of Illinois River locations flip-flopping the interior soybean basis continues to show a firm tone. The Gulf, too, continues to show a strong bias. Late last week the Sept/Nov soybean spread flirted with being inverted; that spread fell apart today. Offers to sell cash meal continue to look for business despite some locations in Iowa going through some downtime. Soybean spreads were soft across the Board on Monday while meal spreads steady to easier.
The recent soybean price action looks like an upflagging effort within the broader downtrend. Soybean meal taps at last week’s low but manages to stand in. Bean oil continues to try and buck the underlying lower trend in both beans and meal all the while suggesting it is nothing more than a broad trading range affair.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/22
Nov Beans: $9.25 – $9.45
Dec Meal; $295.0 – $305.0
Dec Bn Oil: $33.60 – $34.70
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