Wheat Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Wheat

Wheat Commentary
July Chgo wheat closes 4 cents higher ($4.57 ¼), Sept 4 cents higher ($4.73) and Dec 4 cents higher ($4.95 ¼)
July KC Wheat closes 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.61 ½), Sept 4 ½ cents higher ($4.80 ¼) and Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.05 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Mpls wheat continues to zoom higher and that in turn allows the Chgo and KC markets to eke out modest gains. When enough is enough in the Mpls wheat market remains to be seen. This past day the eastern Dakotas saw some decent rain but the market action suggests it may have been too little, too late or the coverage did not get to the direst areas. Yes, the Mpls market remains overbought but that has yet to stem the stampede. I get the impression that the Chgo and KC markets will continue to tread water. So far these two markets have not really negated the suggestive sell signals that were registered late last week.
Interior cash wheat markets (HRW & SRW) remain quiet with a slight defensive look. The ongoing harvest for both of these crops is responsible. Spreads stay wide. I’m not sure if this is due to first notice day fears or the ongoing harvest. IN recent weeks there has a lot of chatter around low protein within the winter crop. If low protein is that big of an issue deliveries may be slight. The trade will be anxious to see Acreage report as that will help to get a better handle on crop size for both winter wheat and spring wheat. As far as the winter wheat is concerned I’ll be focusing on harvested acres.
As I mentioned earlier the Chgo and KC wheat markets are having a difficult time overcoming the suggestive sell signal that was registered late last week. It makes me wonder where these two markets would be if the Mpls market was not zooming higher. I’m thinking that over the next day and half we’ll see price action similar to what we have seen over the past couple of days.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/29
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.64 – $4.78
Sept KC Wheat: $4.70 – $4.80

 

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