Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans close½ cent lower ($9.75 ¾), Aug 1 ¼ cents lower ($9.75) and Nov unchanged ($9.67 ¾)
July Meal closes $1.7 lower ($315.3), Aug $1.5 lower ($316.1) and Dec $1.4 lower ($316.7)
July Bean Oil closes 14 pts higher ($33.15), Aug 15 pts higher ($33.25) and Dec 15 pts higher ($33.56)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-12 K T. expected
The US soybean market continues to stay alive despite the perception of plentiful stocks. The SA producer continues to be a reluctant seller and that just garners additional export business for the US. Remember this is a time frame when the US soybean export business was expected to be non-existent. The break in the US Dollar works to keep US origin in the global export market. The product markets continue to flip-flop back and forth; one day it is the meal market leading, the next day it is bean oil. Adding to the market action is the inter-market spreading; one day it is stronger oilseeds vs. weaker feedgrains followed a reversal of such the following day (such as we saw today).
The interior soybean basis if not steady is a shade better especially on the river systems. The Gulf basis continues to show a firm undertone. Soybean spreads ran sharply mixed on the day. The interior soybean meal basis continues to be a dog. Spreads in meal ran fractionally easier on the day.
Soybeans and soybean meal continue to be range bound – follow through in either direction is difficult to come by. Bean oil continues to show a higher bias but it is not setting the world on fire by any means. I see no reason why the recent trading trends within the complex should change any time soon.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/18
July Beans: $9.66 – $9.83
July Meal; $313.0 – $319.0
July Bn Oil: $32.55 – $33.50
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