Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close unchanged ($9.45 ¾), July ¾ cent higher ($9.57 ¼) and Nov½ cent higher ($9.54)
May Meal closes $0.9 higher ($310.5), July $1.1 higher ($314.8) and Dec $1.1 higher ($315.5)
May Bean Oil closes 21 pts lower ($31.70), July 20 pts lower ($31.96) and Dec 21 pts lower ($32.41)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 808.0 K T. old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected; 72.3 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 111.9 K T. old crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected; 1.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – <-1.9 K T.> old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected; no new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Despite much better than expected weekly export sales the old crop soybean market went nowhere fast on Thursday. New crop soybeans went nowhere fast as well as the trade mulls over the idea of yet larger soybean acres if corn planting does not happen in a timely manner. The product markets, too, went nowhere fast as they remain mired in a minor trading range affair sitting above recent lows.
Interior cash soybean markets continue to show a steady to higher bias. Board crush margins continue to stay strong allowing the processor to boost his bids. The Gulf market continues to edge higher as well. Despite the stronger cash markets nearby soybean and soybean meal spreads were soft in anticipation of deliveries tomorrow morning. The July forward spreads did very little.
I’m not sure what’s out there to get the complex out of its current funk. The soybean market is still showing a minor interim double top – that usually means lower prices. The meal price action shows a minor triangulation – these typw of formations usually break out in the direction of the underlying trend which is lower. Bean oil has semblance of a double bottom going but so far follow through has yet to occur. July bean oil needs a close over $32.50 to suggest upside follow through.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/28
July Beans: $9.50 – $9.65
July Meal; $311.0 – $319.0
July Bn Oil: $31.60 – $32.40

 

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