Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close ½ cent lower ($9.99 ½), July½ cent lower ($10.09 ½) and Nov unchanged ($9.93 ½)
May Meal closes $2.3 lower ($326.6), July $2.2 lower ($330.0) and Dec $1.7 lower ($325.3)
May Bean Oil closes 44 pts higher ($32.74), July 43 pts higher ($33.02) and Dec 45 pts higher ($33.40)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 737.2 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
For the last week or so July beans have traded between $10.00 and $10.20 – that continued today. Better than expected weekly export inspections kept soybeans alive into mid-session but that soon faded as the thought is that inspections will once again resume their declines vs. increases as we move forward. Bean oil offered the best support of the products but it effects were offset by lower meal prices. I’m told that tomorrow, March 21st, is a deadline for the US to finalize the currently delayed bio-fuel requirements for 2017. In the past these types of deadlines have come and gone with little fanfare – will this time be any different??? Soybean meal succumbs to pressure from SA developing supplies. With all of the aforementioned said soybeans are caught in the middle. Just like the rest of the Ag markets soy complex traders will spend the next two weeks discussing the possible ramifications of large Quarterly Stocks and a noticeable increase in Prospective Plantings. As of this writing my bias is that complex will be under pressure going into these two reports.
Not much change is being seen in the interior soybean basis. The bids at the Gulf appear to be noticeably lower vs. Friday’s posting. Soybean spreads moved fractionally lower for the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to show a depressed look. Meal spreads, too, leaked lower during the day.
On Monday soybeans tested the topside of the week long mini trading range. Since prices were turned back down off of these highs we will now probably test the recent low side. The meal market is in a similar scenario. I’m not sure bean oil’s strength on Monday is enough to offset the potential for the bean and meal markets to move lower. Personally I’m getting ready to see the bean and meal markets to register new lows their current down moves.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/21
July Beans: $10.00 (?) – $10.15
July Meal; $325.0 – $332.0
July Bn Oil: $32.40 – $33.20
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