Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close unchanged ($9.96 ¼), July½ cent lower ($10.15 ¾) and Nov 2 ½ cents higher ($10.02 ¼)
March Meal closes $2.3 higher ($326.9), July $2.3 higher ($334.4) and Dec $2.9 higher ($330.0)
March Bean Oil closes 57 pts lower ($31.87), July 56 pts lower ($32.39) and Dec 54 pts lower ($32.79)
USDA announces 120 K T. new crop soybeans sold to unknown
Weekly Export Soybean Export Inspections – 656.2 K T. vs. 500-800 K T. expected
Informa suggests soybean planted acres will come in at 88.7 million acres vs. last month’s USDA at 88.0 million.
Soybeans continue to honor the early January lows but that is about all. It seems soybean prices are caught between steady better soybean meal and declining soybean oil (now down 6 days in a row). Soybean meal is trying to catch a bid as some processors talk about curtailing crush. Last week’s weekly meal shipments were the best season-to-date. Importers cannot ignore the near historical (if not historical) low basis levels for export meal. Soybean oil continues to take it on the chin from lower palm prices as well as inter-market spreading vs. long soybean meal. Bean oil prices are now well below levels that we rallied from in late February when bio-fuel rumors were running rampant. Last week the USDA reminded us of plentiful soybean supplies in the US and a monster size looking SA crop. Couple the bearish looking old crop data with the idea of 4 million more soybean acres and it’s no wonder that the price of soybeans can do no better than steady.
Not a lot of changes are being seen with the interior soybean basis. The Ohio River appears a touch better as does the Toledo market. The gulf is quiet vs. late last week postings. The cash meal market remains depressed looking. The gulf market for both beans and meal do little. Both soybean and soybean meal spreads remain soft looking in the current crop year and against the new crop. This has to be viewed as liquidation considering the noticeable increase in soybean acres for next year.
Soybean meal is trying to advertise it has gone low enough for the near term as daily momentum indicators are trying to turn higher. I can read a chart as well as anyone else and I see a world of overhead for this market starting just a few dollars higher from current levels. Yes, soybeans are honoring their January lows but that’s about it as they appear caught between sinking bean oil and stabilizing soybean meal. Bean can rally 15-20 cents before challenging any decent looking congestive type resistance. As of this writing I’m thinking that if the soybean market can indeed rally 15-20 cents over the near term the bean oil market is going to have to get off of its can. Short term inter-day data for bean oil reads oversold – daily data does not.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/14
July Beans: $10.00 (?) – $10.25
July Meal; $330.5 – $337.0
July Bn Oil: $32.00 – $33.10
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