Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans expired 18 ¼ cents higher ($10.13), July closed 14½ cents higher ($10.17 ¾) and Nov 9 cents higher ($10.23 ¼)
May Soybean Meal expired $7.1 higher ($389.8), July closed $9.0 higher ($387.6) and Dec $5.4 higher ($377.1)
May Soybean Oil expired 5 pts lower ($31.12), July closed 6 pts lower ($31.25) and Dec 8 pts lower ($31.95)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 688.1 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected
Soybean Progress – 35% planted vs. 30% expected vs. 26% 5-year average – Emerged – 10% vs. 6% 5-year Average
It looks like we are going to have some “tariff” talks between China and the US later this week in Washington D.C. With that said the soybean bulls came after the old crop on Monday. At one time July soybeans were up nearly 23 cents before some profit taking set in during the latter part of the session. Soybean meal was the product leader despite palm oil registering 4-month highs. The rationale behind the soaring meal prices were if we are going to see a renewed soybean export program it will create a great origination battle between processors and exporters. Needless to say with the higher bean and meal prices inter-market spreaders laid their longs off in the bean oil market.
Interior cash soybean prices ran unchanged vs. what we saw late last week. Old crop Board crush margins closed at their highest levels to date. With that said processors show the best bid structures out there. River bids are slack looking due to the recent slowing of exports. Bull spreads saw some nominal improvement within the old crop; noticeably improvements old crop to new crop. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to show a steady to firm bias. Not much happens with meal export offers. Meal spreads were strong all the way out through the new crop.
We probably saw interim lows for soybeans and soybean meal Sunday night. Until we hear something definitive out of the scheduled Chinese/US trade talks the bulls are going to think the two sides will come to some sort of resolve as to the recent tariff threats. I would not be surprised to see July soybeans trade back up to the $10.40-$10.50 level over the near term. July soybean meal has the potential to trade back up to the low $400.0 level. The recent upflagging in soybean oil just may roll over if we see the aforementioned rallies in soybeans and soybean meal.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/15
July Soybeans: $10.10 – $10.33
July Soybean Meal; $384.0 – $394.0
July Soybean Oil: $30.80 – $31.60
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