Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.71 ½), Sept 3 ½ cents higher ($3.79 ¼) and Dec 3 ½ cents higher ($3.89)
June Chgo Ethanol closes 2.6 cents a gallon lower ($1.456), July 2.0 cents lower ($1.481)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.027 Million bpd vs. 1.006 last week – Stocks – 23.4 Million bbls vs. 23.1 last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-750 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected
Flat price corn catches a bid from firmer wheat prices as well as forecasts for excessive rain to move through the western Corn Belt for the balance of this week into the weekend (lots of talk about having to replant). Additionally; the continued lower US Dollar was finally recognized for some support. I believe we also saw some technical buying as on Tuesday the flat price had moved into to some minor technical selling territory but saw no follow through. The bottom line to support is that in my opinion there are just too many spec shorts in this market for the current time frame. For a spec position this short one would think the corn crop has already been made yet the season is barely getting under way.
The interior cash corn market sees little change on Wednesday. There was some flip-flopping between some river locations but overall the interior basis has an underlying firm tone. Movement remains minimal at best. The Gulf market has been firming since last Thursday. Corn spreads ran fractionally better on the day but remaining well within shouting distance of recent lows.
Trading range, trading range, trading range – need I say more? One of these days the market is going to give us a pop to the upside but when is still a mystery as well as what the catalyst will be. Why to the upside and not the downside – just too many spec shorts for this time frame.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/18
July Corn: $3.67 – $3.76
Dec Corn: $3.85 – $3.93
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