Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.60 ½), July 4 ½ cents lower ($3.69 ¼) and Dec 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.87 ¼)
June Chgo Ethanol closes 2.1 cents a gallon higher ($1.482), July 2.1 cents higher ($1.495)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.006 million bpd vs. 986 K last week – Stocks – 23.1 million bbls vs. 23.2 last week – a higher grind along with better usage
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 277.7 K T. old crop vs. 700-900 K T. expected – <-55.1> K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected
CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 92.8 M T. vs. 91.5 M T. (April) vs. USDA at 96.0 M T.
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) – suggests their corn crop is 39.0 M T. vs. previous estimate of 37.0 M T. vs. USDA at 40.0 M T.
Flat price corn backs and fills Wednesday’s USDA induced rally. Further scrutiny of the USDA new crop world carryout suggests the Chinese year-to-year reduction in stocks (-20.0 M T.) skewed the projection to the low side. Adding to the lower price action were feeble looking weekly export sales as well as the forecast for a planting window beginning this weekend going into mid-late next week.
Most interior cash corn locations that I track see little if any change on Thursday. I did see river locations flip-flopping; a couple of locations a touch better, a couple a touch easier. The Gulf has been easing since Monday. Corn spreads ran fractionally easier with the spec funds reinstating some of their shorts that they covered with Wednesday’s rally. Overall corn spreads remain rather depressed looking.
The inability to follow through on Wednesday’s rally once again fortifies the trading range ideas. As I mentioned yesterday the daily focus will now move to weather forecasts for the balance of the planting season. Short term trading range pivot points for July corn are $3.80-$3.81 on the upside and $3.65 on the downside. Short term trading pivot points for Dec corn are $3.95-$3.96 on the upside and $3.83 on the downside.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/12
July Corn: $3.66 – $3.73
Dec Corn: $3.84 – $3.91
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.