Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 2 ¼ cents lower ($3.61 ¼), July 2 ½ cents lower ($3.68 ¾) and Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.84 ½)
April Chgo Ethanol closes 0.7 cents a gallon lower ($1.522), May 0.2 cents lower ($1.543)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.333 M T. vs. 1.100-1.500 M T. expected
Flat price corn follows through to the downside following Monday’s interim sell signal. I did see some evidence of interest when the flat price was down 4-4 ½ cents (old crop) as there was a midday bounce of 4-5 cents but it was unsustainable. The only news of the day that I saw was the EPA implementing its bio-fuel regulations for 2017. That, I believe, was responsible for the midday bounce off of the lows. I found it interesting that the Ag sector was unable to get any support from the sagging US dollar. More times than not Ag commodities are impacted when the US Dollar has sharp daily moves. The weather in SA continues to be non-threatening for the developing 2nd season corn crop in Brazil as well as the developing crop in Argentina.
Interior cash corn markets are not showing me anything to write home about. Most locations ran unchanged on the day while the Gulf is grinding lower. Corn spreads within the old crop saw only fractional changes while old crop continues to lose to the new crop. One week from this Friday the USDA will give us March 1st Quarterly Stocks – market action/spread action suggests it will be a big number. In addition the USDA will give us corn Prospective Plantings – acreage is expected to be noticeably – this is another reason why old crop loses to new crop.
Yesterday I wrote that I thought July corn would hold the $3.65 level between now and the 31st. If I’m wrong July corn trades closer to $3.60. December corn should hold somewhere between $3.80 and $3.75 for the same time frame.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/22
July Corn: $3.65 – $3.75
Dec Corn: $3.80 – $3.90
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