Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary

July Corn closed 13 cents lower ($3.63), Sept 12 ¾ cents lower ($3.72 ¾) & Dec 12 ½ cents lower ($3.84 ½)

July Chgo Ethanol closed 0.024 cents a gallon lower ($1.413), August 0.028 cents lower ($1.429)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 936.4 K T. old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – 240.2 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected

It was an ugly day for corn trading despite solid looking weekly export sales.   Prices registered new lows and new low closes for the break that started 2 ½ weeks ago.  The flat price gapped lower Wednesday night and the day session kept on going lower.  There was a brief attempt at bouncing midday when it was announced that NAFTA talks would keep going (no new date set for resumption).  The rationale for the lower prices were good growing conditions, tariff/trade fears (supposedly the 15th is the day for enacting tariffs if no accord is reached with China and China said they would retaliate) and a sharply stronger US Dollar.  Most of the break was about trade fears and good growing conditions for the next week or so.  Some would like to tout a “hot & dry” scenario by month’s end but how does one trade a forecast 2 weeks out especially when current conditions are so good.  For what it is worth – this weekend we are expecting extreme temps in the central parts of the Corn Belt – this is not expected to last as temps break and rainfall occurs by next Tuesday.

Selected river locations are seeing better basis levels mostly from slow movement.  Processors continue to stand; fully steady.  The Gulf market eases.  Bear spreads were working in response to the big spec selling.

AS much as I would like to think the corn market has a good fundamental base the price action is extremely lacking.  Good growing conditions along with trade fears trump the outlined demand.  Specs are bailing out of recent net long positions with reckless abandon.  I’m showing Dec corn’s contract low at $3.76 ¼ made back on August 31st, 2016. Last January’s low was $3.79 ¼.  Old crop July corn settled 1 cent off of its contract low of $3.62.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/15

July Corn: ??? – $3.70  

Dec Corn: $3.79 ¼ ($3.76 ¼) – $4.04  

 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.