Corn Commentary
March Corn closes 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.55 ¼), July 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.71 ¾) and Dec 1 cent lower ($3.88 ½)
February Chgo CBOT Ethanol closes 0.009 cents higher ($1.358), March 0.004 cents higher ($1.382)
Weekly Export Sales – old crop 900 k – 1.250 M T. expected – new crop none expected
Flat price corn (March) stumbles at its 100-day moving average, $3.58. The break that followed did find support against the recent highs. The soybean complex stumbling and wheat gyrating back forth from higher to lower and back to higher was also credited with the market’s hesitancy to move higher. Overnight Argentina talks about a lower crop size projection as well as slightly lower acres; citing the ongoing dryness in the southern half of the country. Other news of note was not seen.
Cash movement prompted from Wednesday rally to new 5 week highs had a number of interior basis locations easing. The Gulf, however, appears to be hanging in there. I’m told that the Brazilian line-up to ship corn is steadily declining as that country is ramping up its export program in favor of soybeans. Spreads within the old crop ran steady to very slightly mixed while old crop eased ever so slightly vs. the new crop.
Despite the new high for the current attempt to rally followed by a lower close does not change my idea that the near term bias is still for higher prices. My thought is that $3.53 – $3.52 should be viewed as near term support. Granted the funds bought 21 K contract of corn on Wednesday but I have to think more is to come. Watch the $3.58 level for the weekly close. Closes above that level will have the weekly charts hinting that the worst is over for the time being.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/26
March Corn: $3.52 – $3.60
July Corn: $3.68 ½ – $3.76 ½
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