Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes ¼ cent lower ($3.48), March ½ cent lower ($3.61 ½) and July ¾ cent lower ($3.77 ½)
November Chgo Ethanol closes 0.005 cents a gallon higher ($1.430), Dec 0.018 higher ($1.436)
USDA announces 130 K T. corn sold to unknown
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 444.6 K T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Progress – 70% harvested vs. 70% expected vs. 83% 5-year average
Flat price corn remains dead in the water despite strength elsewhere within the Ag sector. Anticipation of bearish looking data from the USDA on the 9th (higher yield, higher production, higher carryout) as well as 30% of the crop yet to be harvested weighs on the market. Demand is only so-so at best as it seems weekly export inspections continue to fall short of expectations. Export sales should continue to lag last year as the USDA has already laid out a 11.2 M T. less export program. I believe we do have better domestic demand but if one wants a bull market exports have to be part of it. As of this writing the best this market has going for it is the rather large looking spec short position. Unfortunately we don’t have anything out there to challenge them at this time.
Interior cash corn markets are reading steady/mixed. Late last week we saw some locales firming while others were easing. The gulf is trying to show a steady to higher trend. Producer selling remains limited at best. Corn spreads improve fractionally within the crop year while old crop is steady to fractionally lower vs. the new crop. For what it is worth big boy index fund rolling starts tomorrow.
So – how many ways can I describe a market that has been sideways for 2 plus months? Today I’m using “dead in the water”. I have to think that we’ll stay in the current sideways until we see what the USDA has to say on Thursday and even then I’m not sure the sideways mode will change.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/07
Dec Corn: $3.45 – $3.54
March Corn: $3.59 – $3.68
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