July Corn closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($6.52 ½), Sept 3 ½ cents higher ($5.66 ½) & Dec 5 ½ cents lower ($5.37 ¼)
USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 1.700 M T. new crop corn sold to China, 128 K T. new crop corn sold to Mexico
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.892 M T. vs. 1.300-2.200 M T. expected
The massive “1, 2, 3, get out” selling from last week seems to have run its course as we saw notable bounces from the Sunday night lows early in the Monday day session. Unfortunately a good portion of those bounces failed to hold especially in the new crop. Old crop corn prices managed to strengthen from a resumption of bull spreading. New crop corn prices continue under pressure from ideas that planted acres will increase while planting goes along unimpeded. Weather forecasts suggest nothing threatening on the horizon. Weekly export inspections were deemed as solid considering the Mississippi River was closed mid-week last week. It continues to be dry in the Brazilian 2nd season corn areas but there is moisture in the forecasts for their southern areas.
For what it is worth – given today’s export sales announcement new crop sales on the books are at a new record for the current time frame. This is a bit interesting considering the USDA was suggesting a cut in corn exports for the coming season.
Now that the panic selling of last week appears to have run its course we can get back to basics. Old crop corn remains tight. Interior basis levels are mixed as some areas are firming back up while other are maintaining last week’s easing. The gulf is mostly steady. Bull spreads are back to working and as far as I’m concerned that should continue. Prior to last week’s sell-off bull spreads were working with the old crop moving higher. Now I think it is going to be a combination of a steady to firm old crop and a steady to easing new crop.
The trade is expecting to see corn planting at 83%-85% completed. The USDA reports planting progress at 80% vs. the 5-year average of 68%. Emergence stands at 41% vs. the 5-year average of 35%
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/18
July Corn: $6.43 – $6.67
Dec Corn: $5.25 – $5.47
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