July Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($6.98), Sept ½ cent lower ($6.99), & Dec ¼ cent lower ($7.02 ½)
July KC Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($6.47 ¾), Sept 4 cents lower ($6.53 ½) & Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($6.60 ¾)
July Mpls Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($7.14), Sept ¼ cent lower ($7.20 ¾) & Dec ½ cent lower ($7.26)
Flat price wheat surges higher early and fails to hold its gains. The KC market was today’s downside leader. I read where the European soft wheat crop is being increased by 3.0 M T. Beneficial weather remains in the forecast for the spring wheat crop in the US northern Plains. We’ve seen these forecasts before and they have failed to materialize but as I mentioned yesterday more models agree with the current forecast. Today started the Wheat Quality Council tour of Kansas. They are finding better yields vs. what they found in 2019 but they are also finding a fair amount of stripe rust which is a result of cool and wet conditions. The tour was not held last year due to the virus.
Cash markets don’t do much whether it’s the interior basis or the export basis. Spreads leak wider as the new crop comes closer to fruition.
The technical price action leaves a lot to be desired. Last Friday we rallied to the neckline of the double top formation and failed. Today we came close to those same resistance levels and failed again. July Chgo wheat will look rather ugly if it closes below the $6.90 level. The KC market already looks ugly.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/19
July Chgo Wheat: $6.90 ($6.82) – $7.10
July KC Wheat: $6.37 ($6.25) – $6.60
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