Soybean Commentary
Jan Soybeans close 9 cents higher ($10.05 ½), March 8 ½ cents higher ($10.13 ¾) and July 8 cents higher ($10.29 ¾)
Jan Meal closes $3.6 higher ($313.4),March $3.6 higher ($317.5) and July $3.0 higher ($322.4)
Jan Bean Oil closes 16 pts higher ($35.43), March 15 pts higher ($35.64) and July 15 pts higher ($36.11)
CONAB suggests the Brazilian soybean crop is 103.8 M T. vs. 102.45 last month
Similar to Monday’s trade the soybean complex featured additional short covering on Tuesday. The Monday night trade saw prices trying to sell off but once again there was no follow through once the day session started. The Brazilian crop size projection was deemed as “in the market”. There is still the daily chatter around growing conditions in Argentina – the rhetoric has not changed – some areas too dry while some remain too wet. It also seems to me we saw a fair amount of inter-market spread trading; buying oilseeds/selling feed grains. If one looks at a daily chart of March soybeans vs. March corn it does support what I saw on Tuesday. I have attached it for your perusal.
Interior cash soybean markets saw little to no change on Tuesday. The only change I saw was Toledo bumping their soybean bid up 1 cent. The Gulf market was posted 3 cents better. Board crush margins continue to creep higher. Bull spreads improved fractionally within the current year; old crop gains marginally on the new crop. For what it is worth the old crop vs. new crop continues to be in a sideways to lower trend.
As I alluded to yesterday I get the idea no one wants to be short in the hole ahead of the USDA data scheduled for release on the Thursday the 12th. Overall the complex continues to be range bound ahead of this data. I have no axe to grind ahead of this data. Day traders and overnight traders should continue to fade short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/11
March Beans: $10.03 – $10.22
March Meal; $313.0 – $321.5
March Bn Oil: $35.25 – $35.90 ($36.20)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.