Nov Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($9.96 ¼), March 5 cents lower ($9.96 ¼) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($9.99 ¾)
October Soybean Meal closed $4.3 lower ($332.6), Dec $4.7 lower ($333.9) & March $3.5 lower ($329.6)
October Soybean Oil closed 45 pts higher ($33.29), Dec 29 pts higher ($33.11) & March 24 pts higher ($33.18)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 218.3 K T. sold to unknown
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.211 M T. vs. 1.100-1.400 M T. expected
Weekly US Soybean Crop Ratings & Progress – 64% GE (+1%) vs. 63% expected vs. 55% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 74% vs. 69% 5-year average – Harvested – 20% vs. 18% expected vs. 15% 5-year average
After spending the Sunday night session in a mixed tight trade trading range soybean futures moved lower in the day session weighed down by lower meal prices. Soybean oil prices continue to recover from its interim lows seen last Thursday. Overall it seemed that the soybean price action was caught between the lower meal prices and the recovering bean oil prices. One way to look at is this – Dec meal was down $470 while Dec bean oil was up $174 the difference being $296.00; soybeans were off $312.50. Harvest pressure, meaning soybeans moving to the processor, I think was responsible for the break in meal prices. I also couldn’t help but notice some almost volatile spread activity in both Oct/Dec spreads (soybean meal & soybean Oil) which is probably a result of 1st Notice Day on Wednesday. As of this writing I’m not holding my breath for too many deliveries in both of these products.
The only changes that I’m seeing in the interior soybean basis is at a couple of river locations and they are modestly better. The processor basis appears to be steady with a slight defensive tone. The Gulf basis for soybeans remains strong. The nearby soybean spread, Nov/Jan, only saw a fractional loss but as time went on (Jan forward) the bias was to widen. The interior meal basis runs steady to better. The bigger message here is the ongoing strength in the export market for meal. Its unchanged with last week’s strength but it is clearly evident to me that processors will need some time to catch up after their seasonal downtime for maintenance. Meal spreads, Dec forward, showed a widening bias all the way out to next October.
Nov beans clearly remain in a correctional phase with the best looking support down towards $9.85-$9.80. $10.10-$10.15 looks like the immediate resistance. Dec meal has now moved into a correctional phase with its best looking immediate support down towards the $327.0-$3.25.0 level. $340.0 is now showing up as immediate minor resistance. December soybean oil appears to be upflagging out of it recent hole. $32.50 is the new minor support while resistance comes in up around the $33.75-$34.00 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 9/29
Nov Beans: $9.85 – $10.05
Dec Bean Meal: $328.0 – $337.0
Dec Bean Oil: $32.50 – $33.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.