Sept Chgo Wheat closed 8 ½ cents lower ($4.88 ½), Dec 8 ½ cents lower ($5.04) & March 8 ½ cents lower ($5.19)
Sept KC Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($4.84 ½), Dec 7 ¼ cents lower ($5.09) & March 7 ½ cents lower ($5.27 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 469.5 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – 74% harvested vs. 73% expected vs. 71% 5-year average
Weekly Spring Wheat Condition & Progress – 80% GE (unch) vs. 79% expected vs. 34% year ago – Headed – 93% vs. 85% 5-year average
The US wheat futures’ market went it alone on Monday as European markets finished the day mostly steady. I know I’ve been calling the US market a follower but why it went solo today I’m not quite sure. News wires will call it harvest pressure. I know we don’t have much of an export market although today’s export inspections came in better than expected.
Interior wheat basis levels are seeing little change on Monday. The plus side of that is basis levels are holding to recent improvement. The export market, however, looks like a slug. Spreads in Chgo where mostly steady upfront while the current crop year lost ground to the new crop. KC spreads ran steady all the way out to the new crop.
Despite the US futures’ market deviating away from the European direction my bias is that we are no worse than a trading affair for the time being. Sept Chgo wheat below $4.80 I’m deeming as low risk ownership. I’m thinking the same for Sept KC wheat if it nears the $4.75 level.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/17
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.82 – $4.98
Sept KC Wheat: $4.77 – $4.95
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.