July Soybeans closed 8 ½ cents lower ($8.35 ½), August 8 ¾ cents lower ($8.39 ¼) & Nov 8 ½ cents lower ($8.55 ¾)
July Soybean Meal closed $0.4 higher ($328.2), August $0.1 higher ($326.4) & Dec $1.5 lower ($323.9)
July Soybean Oil closed 15 pts lower ($28.47), August 17 pts lower ($28.57) & Dec 17 pts lower ($29.03)
Informa suggests the 2018 US soybean crop is 4.425 billion bu.; yield 49.8 bpa
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 4-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
An attempt at early strength gave way to another round of new contract lows. You can talk all you want about the problems in NW Iowa, southern Minnesota and eastern S. Dakota but the bottom line is all about tariff fears. If the US does indeed enact tariffs on Chinese imports China has said they will enact their own tariffs on US imports. The products targeted is said to include US soybeans. Zero hour is supposedly 12:00 AM EDST Friday. All we can do at this point is to wait and see. If some resolve is seen before the “zero” hour I would think the soybean market will react sharply to the upside. If the tariffs do go into effect I would think soybean prices will move lower but how much remains to be seen given the soybean market has been sagging from this threat since early June. The product markets have been nowhere as weak as soybeans which in turn continue to bolster Board crush margins. Board crush margins haven’t been this strong dating back to December of 2014. Unfortunately the strong margins have failed to bolster the soybean market.
The interior cash soybean basis is running mostly unchanged; Toledo is the only locations I show with an increasing basis. The Gulf continues to have little influence. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day. What changes that did occur were on fractional. Overall soybean spreads have been moving sideways for about 1 ½ weeks now as they hove r just above contract lows that were made in mid-June.
Where will you be at midnight (Eastern Time) tonight? Whether or not trade tariffs are enacted its up to the US to make the first move as China said it will not move first.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/06
Aug Soybeans: ??? – $8.65
Nov Soybeans: ??? – $8.82
Aug Soybean Meal; $322.0 (?) – $338.0
Aug Soybean Oil: $27.95 – $29.35
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.