Corn Commentary
May corn closes 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.90 ¾), July 2 cents higher ($3.99) and Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.14 ¾)
May Chgo Ethanol closes 0.025 cents a gallon higher (1.459), June 0.020 cents higher ($1.465)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.937 M T. vs. 1.150-1.350 M T. expected
AgRural suggests Brazilian corn crop at 80.6 M T. (20.7 + 59.9) vs. previous 80.7 (20.5 + 60.2) vs. March USDA at 94.5 M T.
Crop Progress – 2% planted vs. 2% expected vs. 3% year ago vs. 2% 5-year average
Flat price corn grinds higher on Monday with emphasis on the “grind”. We saw great weekly export inspections. Ideas that planting of the new crop will remain slow (cold, cold & wet and just wet) along with ideas of continued stout demand further down the road (short corn crops in Brazil & Argentina) supported the flat price. Strength elsewhere throughout the Ag complex lent additional support. Tomorrow the USDA will update both World and US supply demand. The US projected carryout is expected to increase by 62 million bu. This idea comes from the larger than expected Quarterly Stocks data on March 29th. If there is a surprise is will be the carryout is not as great as expected due to better feeding rates and exports. The World carryout is expected to decline by 1.88 M T. If there is a surprise here it will be a lower carryout vs. trade expectations. To date the USDA has been quite slow in adopting the lower corn crops out of SA.
Interior cash corn markets continue to run steady to higher. Locations that are showing the best increase continue to come from river locations that feed down to the Gulf. Processors continue to stand in as old crop movement is rather slow despite the rise in the flat price. Producers that are still holding old crop corn continue to wait for better prices. The Gulf has firm tone despite Friday afternoon’s posting coming in lower vs. Thursday’s. Corn spreads saw little if fractional changes on the day.
Old crop corn is close to challenging its March highs. Old crop corn has double topped against the high we saw on April 2nd. New crop corn makes new highs for the run that started in in January and does record a new high close for the rally. At this point in time the price action still advertises that it wants to go higher. The only drawback to going higher that I can see is if political tensions continue to increase between China and the US.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/10
May Corn: $3.85 ($3.82) – $3.96 (?)
July Corn: $3.94 ($3.91) – $4.04 (?)
Dec Corn: $4.10 – $4.22 ½
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