Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close 8 ¾ cents higher ($10.00 ¼), July 8 ½ cents higher ($10.21) and Nov 5 ½ cents higher ($10.13 ½)
March Soybean Meal closes $3.1 higher ($340.5), July $2.7 higher ($345.8) and Dec $1.4 higher ($340.9)
March Soybean Oil closes 21 pts higher ($33.08), July 22 pts higher ($33.49) and Dec 21 pts higher ($33.74)
Soybeans register new highs and new high closes for the rally that started on January 12th. It’s all about SA growing/harvesting conditions. Central southern Argentina is forecasted to stay warm and dry for the next 7-10 days or so. The harvest ready areas of Brazil are forecasted to be inundated with excessive moisture for the next week or so leading to harvest delays if not crop losses. Soybean meal has moved into a consolidating type affair following last week’s interim peak. I get the impression the meal market is waiting for additional weather input from SA before it decides to move further from current levels. Bean oil continues in its recovery pattern that started on Jan 23rd.
Interior cash soybean markets, for the most part, show a defensive look. Certain river locations involved with exports flip-flop back and forth depending on which location needs beans. Soybean spreads within the crop year improved fractionally while old crop/new crop improved noticeable. Offers to sell interior cash meal continue to show a bias to improve. The Gulf market for meal is noticeably stronger. Meal spreads mirrored the soybean spreads; modestly better within the crop year and noticeably better old crop/new crop. As long as the idea of harvest delays in Brazil coupled with the unknown around the size of the Argentina crop soybean and soybean meal spreads should be biased to improve.
The trends in soybeans read higher. The trend in soybean meal reads higher but with a short term consolidation. I’m not sure bean oil is ready to embark on a new interim uptrend but I have to think that if the bean and meal markets continue to move higher bean oil will trail along but to a lesser extent. For the time being weather watching in SA will be the MO for trading.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/31
March Beans: $9.92 – $10.13
March Meal; $336.0 – $346.0
March Bn Oil: $32.75 – $33.40
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